Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Michael MasseyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Twins- Kody ClemensBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Mike ParedesPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rojas singled to center, Thomas scored and Tolbert scored, Garcia to second.8–6
- 6Caratini homered to right (364 feet).6–6
- 6Jensen scored on error, Witt Jr. safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Kreidler, Witt Jr. safe at second on error.6–5
- 6Jensen doubled to left, Collins scored and Isbel scored, Jensen to third.5–5
- 5Clemens homered to right (379 feet).3–5
- 4Kreidler tripled to center, Larnach scored.3–4
- 4Massey homered to right (360 feet).3–3
- 3Clemens homered to center (414 feet).2–3
- 2Caratini doubled to center, Keaschall scored.2–2
- 2Loftin scored on Morris wild pitch, Witt Jr. to second on wild pitch by Morris, Isbel to third on wild pitch by Morris.2–1
- 2Loftin scored on Morris wild pitch, Witt Jr. to second on wild pitch by Morris, Isbel to third on wild pitch by Morris.2–1
- 1Buxton homered to center (430 feet).1–1
- 1Perez hit sacrifice fly to right, Witt Jr. scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 52%
- ML KC -118 / MIN -102
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- KC: Elo 46.3%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- KC -107
- MIN +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.6 – 4.4 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +8 | KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Andrew Morris: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +26 Elo | MIN 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.024th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 30th of 309–21 | Road vs home | 17–1516th of 30 |
| 8th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301482 | Elo rating | 147127th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–30 | 33–30 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–16 | 7–11 |
| Underdog | 21–14 | 26–19 |
| Overs–unders | 28–33–1 | 35–22–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 19–23 MIN in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 42.