Athletics at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Jeff McNeilBatting2-4
- Mason BarnettPitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Twins- Alan RodenBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Kendry RojasPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Roden singled to right, Bell scored and Lewis scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 57%
- ML ATH +123 / MIN -149
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- MIN: Elo 55.7%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -133
- ATH +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.7 – 5.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +9 | ATH: Brady Basso: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · MIN: Mike Paredes: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +40 Elo | MIN 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.2 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 19th of 3024–29 | Road vs home | 26–2617th of 30 |
| 25th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 28th of 301451 | Elo rating | 147925th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–54 | 52–53 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–28 | 12–25 |
| Underdog | 38–26 | 40–28 |
| Overs–unders | 50–49–4 | 56–41–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 7–14 MIN in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 21.