Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Brooks LeeBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Guardians- Kyle ManzardoBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Manzardo singled to right, Rocchio scored.10–6
- 8Manzardo homered to right (344 feet).10–5
- 8Bell singled to center, Jackson scored, Larnach to second.10–4
- 8Larnach singled to center, Keaschall scored and Roden scored, Jackson to second.9–4
- 4Ramírez grounded into fielder's choice to second, Halpin scored, Kwan out at second.7–4
- 4Lee homered to center (401 feet), Keaschall and Jackson scored.7–3
- 4Jackson reached on infield single to third, Roden scored, Keaschall to second.4–3
- 3Bell grounded out to second, Larnach scored, Lee to second.3–3
- 3Lee singled to center, Jackson scored, Larnach to third.2–3
- 2Ramírez reached on infield single to third, Bailey scored, Kwan to second.1–3
- 2Bailey singled to right, Manzardo scored.1–2
- 1Rocchio singled to left, Ramírez scored.1–1
- 1Larnach homered to right center (404 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 55%
- ML MIN +114 / CLE -137
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- CLE: Elo 58.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -124
- MIN +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.8 – 4.2 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | 0 | MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Slade Cecconi: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +57 Elo | CLE 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.029th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.08th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | 0.014th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 17th of 3023–28 | Road vs home | 27–2411th of 30 |
| 10th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 25th of 301477 | Elo rating | 15129th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–52 | 53–49 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 12–24 | 16–33 |
| Underdog | 38–28 | 37–16 |
| Overs–unders | 55–39–8 | 48–54 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 17–30 CLE in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 47.