Minnesota Twins at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Ryan JeffersBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Kreidler singled to left, Martin scored, Kreidler to second, Keaschall to third.5–2
- 6Suzuki scored on Nance wild pitch.4–2
- 6Suzuki scored on Nance wild pitch.4–2
- 3Jeffers homered to left center (369 feet), Gray scored and Larnach scored.4–1
- 3Larnach singled to left, Keaschall scored, Gray to second.1–1
- 1Busch singled to right, Crow-Armstrong scored, Suzuki to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 58%
- ML MIN +125 / CHC -151
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- CHC: Elo 59.8%, market 57.5%
- Fair odds
- CHC -135
- MIN +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 5.2 – 5.8 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −7 | MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Colin Rea: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +69 Elo | CHC 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 57.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 57.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.55th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 13th of 3022–24 | Road vs home | 27–197th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149627th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301484 | Elo rating | 15344th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–48 | 43–53 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 12–23 | 22–39 |
| Underdog | 37–25 | 21–14 |
| Overs–unders | 53–37–7 | 49–42–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 5–4 CHC in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.