Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Alex BregmanBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching6.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Reds- Eugenio SuarezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Bregman homered to left center (387 feet), Crow-Armstrong scored and Suzuki scored.8–4
- 7Crow-Armstrong singled to right, Swanson scored.5–4
- 4Alcántara singled to center, Busch scored and Kelly scored, Happ to third.4–4
- 3Suárez homered to left (433 feet), Bleday scored.2–4
- 3Bleday singled to left, Stewart scored, Bleday to second.2–2
- 3Steer grounded out to shortstop, De La Cruz scored.2–1
- 1Busch doubled to right, Bregman scored.2–0
- 1Bregman doubled to center, Crow-Armstrong scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 54%
- ML CHC -130 / CIN +108
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- CHC: Elo 55.0%, market 54.0%
- Fair odds
- CHC -118
- CIN +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.7 – 4.3 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +5 | CHC: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +35 Elo | CHC 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 54.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.819th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 9th of 3026–23 | Road vs home | 22–2725th of 30 |
| 27th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15044th of 30 |
| 4th of 301532 | Elo rating | 148123rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–53 | 48–46 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 21–39 | 14–21 |
| Underdog | 21–14 | 34–25 |
| Overs–unders | 48–42–5 | 52–41–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 21–24 CIN in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 45.