Chicago Cubs at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Alex BregmanBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Shane BazPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Swanson singled to right, Hoerner scored.5–2
- 7Rutschman singled to right, Alexander scored and Basallo scored, Rutschman to second, Ward to second, Ward safe at third on throwing error by right fielder Suzuki.4–2
- 7Busch hit sacrifice fly to left, Amaya scored.4–0
- 5Bregman grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Amaya scored, Crow-Armstrong out at second. Chicago Cubs challenged: call on the field was overturned.3–0
- 5Crow-Armstrong singled to right, Swanson scored, Amaya to third.2–0
- 3Bregman singled to center, Amaya scored, Crow-Armstrong to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 51%
- ML CHC -114 / BAL -106
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- CHC: Elo 53.9%, market 50.9%
- Fair odds
- CHC -104
- BAL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.8 – 4.7 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +1 | CHC: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Shane Baz: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +27 Elo | CHC 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 50.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.614th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 8th of 3023–21 | Road vs home | 24–2316th of 30 |
| 25th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 30 |
| 4th of 301531 | Elo rating | 148820th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–52 | 45–46 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 21–38 | 23–26 |
| Underdog | 17–14 | 22–20 |
| Overs–unders | 47–38–5 | 49–38–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 7–2 BAL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.