Baltimore Orioles at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Blaze AlexanderBatting3-4
- Kyle BradishPitching7.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Henderson hit sacrifice fly to left, Beavers scored.2–3
- 8Stewart doubled to left, Arroyo scored.1–3
- 6Mayo singled to left, Ward scored.1–2
- 5Steer homered to right center (374 feet), Suárez scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 52%
- ML BAL -118 / CIN -102
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- BAL: Elo 50.1%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- BAL -107
- CIN +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 5.1 – 4.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −3 | BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +1 Elo | BAL 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.922nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.726th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3018–25 | Road vs home | 19–2425th of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 20th of 301489 | Elo rating | 147923rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–46 | 45–43 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 23–26 | 13–19 |
| Underdog | 21–20 | 32–24 |
| Overs–unders | 49–37–4 | 51–36–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 7–4 CIN in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 11.