Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Noelvi MarteBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Brewers- Garrett MitchellBatting4-4, 1 RBI
- Shane DrohanPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Mitchell scored on Burke wild pitch.2–4
- 7Mitchell scored on Burke wild pitch.2–4
- 7Mitchell scored on Burke wild pitch.2–4
- 7Mitchell tripled to center, Vaughn scored.2–3
- 2Marte homered to left (378 feet), Stephenson scored.2–2
- 1Bauers hit sacrifice fly to left, Turang scored.0–2
- 1Contreras grounded out to second, Chourio scored, Turang to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 59%
- ML CIN +134 / MIL -163
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- MIL: Elo 62.7%, market 59.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -145
- CIN +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.1 – 4.9 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1568 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −10 | CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Shane Drohan: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +90 Elo | MIL 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 61.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 61.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 59.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.23rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +1.52nd of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 17th of 3020–23 | Road vs home | 28–175th of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149916th of 30 |
| 24th of 301480 | Elo rating | 15682nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–40 | 47–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–18 | 28–29 |
| Underdog | 31–22 | 19–7 |
| Overs–unders | 49–34–1 | 37–43–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 12–32 MIL in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 44.