Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- JJ BledayBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Ryan O'HearnBatting3-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Valdez homered to left center (461 feet).4–9
- 8O'Hearn homered to right center (384 feet), Reynolds scored and Gonzales scored.4–8
- 5O'Hearn homered to right (421 feet).4–5
- 5Arroyo singled to right, Stephenson scored.4–4
- 5Stephenson doubled to left, Marte scored.3–4
- 4Bleday singled to center, De La Cruz scored and Stewart scored.2–4
- 2Callihan homered to right (412 feet), O'Hearn scored and Valdez scored.0–4
- 2Valdez hit a ground rule double, Gonzales scored, O'Hearn to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 56%
- ML CIN +117 / PIT -141
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- PIT: Elo 54.6%, market 55.9%
- Fair odds
- PIT -127
- CIN +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.2 – 4.8 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −1 | CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +32 Elo | PIT 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 55.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.14th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.36th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 12th of 3020–20 | Road vs home | 22–2218th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 30 |
| 21st of 301486 | Elo rating | 149216th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–37 | 39–44 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–18 | 17–28 |
| Underdog | 31–19 | 22–16 |
| Overs–unders | 48–32–1 | 47–33–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 20–27 PIT in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 31 of 47.