Seattle Mariners at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Pirates- Ryan O'HearnBatting4-5, 3 RBI
- Braxton AshcraftPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8O'Hearn doubled to right, Cook scored.1–11
- 8Reynolds doubled to center, Valdez scored.1–10
- 7Callihan hit sacrifice fly to left, O'Hearn scored.1–9
- 7Rodríguez singled to right, Gonzales scored, O'Hearn to third.1–8
- 7O'Hearn doubled to right, Lowe scored and Reynolds scored, Gonzales to third.1–7
- 4Valdez singled to center, Mangum scored.1–5
- 4Mangum singled to left, Callihan scored.1–4
- 4Callihan tripled to right, Rodríguez scored.1–3
- 4Rodríguez doubled to right, Gonzales scored and O'Hearn scored.1–2
- 1Rodríguez singled to left, Crawford scored, Raleigh to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 51%
- ML SEA -105 / PIT -115
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- PIT: Elo 49.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PIT -104
- SEA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.0 – 4.0 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +8 | SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Braxton Ashcraft: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +6 Elo | SEA 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.823rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.27th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 12th of 3019–20 | Road vs home | 20–2019th of 30 |
| 29th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 30 |
| 7th of 301517 | Elo rating | 148920th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–46 | 37–42 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 25–39 | 16–26 |
| Underdog | 9–7 | 21–16 |
| Overs–unders | 37–39–4 | 44–32–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 7–3 PIT in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.