Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jared JonesPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Rockies- TJ RumfieldBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9McCarthy reached on infield single to second, Karros scored on throwing error by second baseman Lowe.8–6
- 9Karros doubled to left, Fulford scored.8–5
- 8Rumfield homered to right center (387 feet), McCarthy scored and Castro scored.8–4
- 7Reynolds homered to right (433 feet), Horwitz scored and Lowe scored.8–1
- 6Mangum doubled to right, Callihan scored.5–1
- 6Callihan singled to right, Gonzales scored, Rodríguez thrown out at third.4–1
- 5Triolo doubled to right, Mangum scored.3–1
- 4Gonzales homered to left center (431 feet), Reynolds scored.2–1
- 2Thompson grounded into fielder's choice to second, Freeman scored, Julien out at second, Carrigg to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 57%
- ML PIT -149 / COL +123
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- PIT: Elo 57.5%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -133
- COL +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 6.1 – 5.4 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1409 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | 0 | PIT: Jared Jones: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · COL: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +52 Elo | PIT 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 58.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.730th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −1.130th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 12th of 3018–20 | Road vs home | 16–2027th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15091st of 30 |
| 20th of 301488 | Elo rating | 140930th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–42 | 40–37 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–26 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 20–16 | 39–34 |
| Overs–unders | 43–31–3 | 35–39–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 14–9 COL in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 23.