Pittsburgh Pirates at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Endy RodriguezBatting3-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jared JonesPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Athletics- Nick KurtzBatting3-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- J.T. GinnPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rodríguez homered to left center (406 feet).2–11
- 7Kurtz homered to left (380 feet), Bolte scored and McNeil scored.1–11
- 7McNeil singled to right, Butler scored, Bolte to second.1–8
- 7Butler doubled to center, Gelof scored.1–7
- 5Gelof singled to center, Soderstrom scored, Wilson to third.1–6
- 4McNeil homered to right (359 feet), Butler scored.1–5
- 4Mangum singled to left, Gonzales scored, Rodríguez to third.1–3
- 2Kurtz homered to left center (407 feet), McNeil scored.0–3
- 2McNeil singled to left, Bolte scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 53%
- ML PIT +104 / ATH -126
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- ATH: Elo 52.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ATH -114
- PIT +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.9 – 5.1 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +9 | PIT: Jared Jones: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATH: J.T. Ginn: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +18 Elo | ATH 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.727th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 13th of 3016–17 | Road vs home | 15–1926th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15047th of 30 |
| 18th of 301490 | Elo rating | 147727th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–39 | 38–33 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–24 | 8–21 |
| Underdog | 19–15 | 30–12 |
| Overs–unders | 41–29–2 | 34–34–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–6 ATH in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.
