Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Ryan WardBatting1-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Shohei OhtaniPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Tyler CallihanBatting2-2, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Jared JonesPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ohtani homered to center (412 feet), Rojas scored.8–9
- 8Horwitz homered to right center (402 feet), Triolo scored.6–9
- 8Callihan homered to right (394 feet), Gonzales scored and R. Flores scored.6–7
- 7Lowe scored on error, Reynolds safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Muncy.6–4
- 7Lowe doubled to right, Mangum scored and Callihan scored.6–3
- 6Ward homered to right (385 feet), Pages scored, Freeman scored and Muncy scored.6–1
- 4Callihan homered to right (427 feet).2–1
- 4Tucker singled to center, Muncy scored.2–0
- 4Muncy doubled to right, Freeman scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 64%
- ML LAD -207 / PIT +169
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 62.3%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- LAD -181
- PIT +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.9 – 3.6 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1577 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | −3 | LAD: Shohei Ohtani: team allows 0.94 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Jared Jones: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +87 Elo | LAD 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 64.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 64.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.3 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.2 | Runs allowed | 4.721st of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.1 | Margin | +0.36th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3021–12 | Road vs home | 18–1616th of 30 |
| 29th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 149916th of 30 |
| 1st of 301577 | Elo rating | 149317th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–31 | 32–35 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 33–30 | 14–21 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 18–14 |
| Overs–unders | 28–38–1 | 38–27–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 11–9 PIT in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 20.