Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Ryan WardBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Justin WrobleskiPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Marte homered to left (431 feet).2–3
- 8Perdomo singled to center, Moreno scored, Waldschmidt to second.2–2
- 8Carroll homered to right (383 feet).2–1
- 5Rushing singled to left, Ward scored.2–0
- 5Ward doubled to center, Espinal scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 55%
- ML LAD -136 / ARI +113
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 57.4%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -123
- ARI +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.7 – 4.3 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1578 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −8 | LAD: Justin Wrobleski: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +52 Elo | LAD 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.1 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.2 | Margin | 0.012th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3020–11 | Road vs home | 18–115th of 30 |
| 29th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 1st of 301578 | Elo rating | 151111th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–28 | 36–25 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 32–27 | 12–15 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 24–10 |
| Overs–unders | 25–36–1 | 27–29–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 27–21 ARI in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 30 of 48.