Arizona Diamondbacks at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Adrian Del CastilloBatting1-3
- Ryne NelsonPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Perdomo scored on a passed ball by Garver.1–5
- 9Perdomo scored on a passed ball by Garver.1–5
- 6Young hit sacrifice fly to right, Arozarena scored.0–5
- 3Rodríguez homered to center (418 feet).0–4
- 3Emerson homered to right (365 feet).0–3
- 2Canzone homered to right center (412 feet).0–2
- 2Raley homered to right center (390 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 58%
- ML ARI +129 / SEA -156
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- SEA: Elo 55.2%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -140
- ARI +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.1 – 3.9 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +4 | ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +36 Elo | SEA 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 56.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.85th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.45th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 17th of 3013–15 | Road vs home | 15–1516th of 30 |
| 21st of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149620th of 30 |
| 11th of 301515 | Elo rating | 15236th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–22 | 24–34 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–14 | 17–31 |
| Underdog | 22–8 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 26–25–5 | 26–29–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 5–5 SEA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.