Seattle Mariners at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Mitch GarverBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Emerson HancockPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Athletics- Tyler SoderstromBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Gage JumpPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Soderstrom homered to center (409 feet).4–1
- 4Rodríguez singled to left, Robles scored, Crawford to second.4–0
- 2Crawford hit sacrifice fly to right, Garver scored, Robles to third.3–0
- 2Young hit sacrifice fly to center, Refsnyder scored.2–0
- 2Athletics challenged (stadium boundary call), call on the field was overturned: Mitch Garver hits a ground-rule double (2) on a ground ball to left field. Josh Naylor scores. Rob Refsnyder to 3rd.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 50%
- ML SEA -108 / ATH -112
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- ATH: Elo 48.9%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- ATH -102
- SEA +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.7 – 4.8 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +1 | SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Gage Jump (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +8 Elo | SEA 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.318th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 15th of 3012–14 | Road vs home | 10–1325th of 30 |
| 20th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 11th of 301517 | Elo rating | 148520th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–33 | 29–25 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 17–30 | 5–17 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 24–8 |
| Overs–unders | 24–28–3 | 25–26–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 30–13 ATH in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 43.