Athletics at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Nick KurtzBatting2-4
- Jose SuarezPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting0-2, 1 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 3France grounded out to shortstop, Castellanos scored.0–2
- 2Tatis Jr. hit by pitch, Merrill scored, Song to second, Fermin to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 54%
- ML ATH -132 / SD +109
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 42%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.1 pts
- ATH: Elo 42.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- ATH -119
- SD +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.2 – 3.8 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +9 | ATH: J.T. Ginn: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +55 Elo | SD 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.119th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.09th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.111th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 8th of 3016–13 | Road vs home | 15–1211th of 30 |
| 18th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 148929th of 30 |
| 20th of 301487 | Elo rating | 15267th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–23 | 26–24 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–15 | 12–16 |
| Underdog | 23–8 | 14–8 |
| Overs–unders | 24–24–3 | 21–27–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 1–9 SD in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 10.