Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Emmet SheehanPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Padres- Miguel AndujarBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Padres challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Andy Pages out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Alex Call scores.5–4
- 6Freeman homered to right center (399 feet).4–4
- 5Ohtani grounded out to second, T. Hernández scored.3–4
- 3Andujar homered to left (393 feet), Tatis Jr. scored.2–4
- 1Machado homered to center (404 feet), Sheets scored.2–2
- 1Freeman homered to left (356 feet), Ohtani scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 61%
- ML LAD -174 / SD +143
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 54.6%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- LAD -154
- SD +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.5 – 3.5 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1564 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −8 | LAD: Emmet Sheehan: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +32 Elo | LAD 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 1st of 303.2 | Runs allowed | 4.08th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.9 | Margin | +0.211th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 4th of 3014–9 | Road vs home | 14–109th of 30 |
| 27th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 148729th of 30 |
| 1st of 301564 | Elo rating | 15286th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–24 | 24–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 24–24 | 11–16 |
| Underdog | — | 13–7 |
| Overs–unders | 20–27–1 | 19–26–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 26–19 SD in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 45.