Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-3
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Padres- Miguel AndujarBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael KingPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 1Andujar homered to left center (376 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 57%
- ML LAD -149 / SD +124
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- LAD: Elo 54.5%, market 57.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -134
- SD +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 3.8 – 3.2 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +3 | LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Michael King: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +32 Elo | LAD 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 60.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 59.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 57.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 1st of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.0 | Margin | +0.29th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 4th of 3014–8 | Road vs home | 13–1011th of 30 |
| 27th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 148630th of 30 |
| 1st of 301566 | Elo rating | 15266th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–23 | 23–23 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 24–23 | 11–16 |
| Underdog | — | 12–7 |
| Overs–unders | 20–26–1 | 19–25–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 26–18 SD in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 44.