Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shohei OhtaniPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting1-3
- Randy VasquezPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 9T. Hernández homered to left center (406 feet).4–0
- 5Tucker singled to right, Ohtani scored, Freeman to third.3–0
- 2T. Hernández hit sacrifice fly to right, Muncy scored.2–0
- 1Ohtani homered to center (405 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 64%
- ML LAD -198 / SD +162
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.6 pts
- LAD: Elo 52.9%, market 63.5%
- Fair odds
- LAD -174
- SD +174 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.4 – 3.1 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1565 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +13 | LAD: Shohei Ohtani: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +20 Elo | LAD 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 61.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 60.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 63.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 1st of 303.2 | Runs allowed | 4.010th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.9 | Margin | +0.111th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 4th of 3015–9 | Road vs home | 14–1110th of 30 |
| 27th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 148829th of 30 |
| 1st of 301565 | Elo rating | 15276th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–25 | 25–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 24–25 | 11–16 |
| Underdog | — | 14–7 |
| Overs–unders | 21–27–1 | 20–26–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 27–19 SD in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 46.