Athletics at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Henry BolteBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching6.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bogaerts hit sacrifice fly to center, Andujar scored.3–7
- 8Sheets singled to left, Durán scored and Tatis Jr. scored, Andujar to third.3–6
- 7Laureano homered to left (401 feet).3–4
- 5Castellanos homered to left (382 feet).3–3
- 4Bolte singled to center, Gelof scored.3–2
- 1Machado homered to left center (370 feet), Tatis Jr. scored.2–2
- 1Rooker grounded out to third, Kurtz scored.2–0
- 1Kurtz doubled to center, Cortes scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 53%
- ML ATH +102 / SD -123
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.3 pts
- SD: Elo 58.0%, market 52.7%
- Fair odds
- SD -111
- ATH +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.6 – 3.9 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −2 | ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +56 Elo | SD 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 52.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.121st of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.010th of 30 |
| 14th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.111th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 8th of 3016–12 | Road vs home | 14–1212th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 148928th of 30 |
| 18th of 301489 | Elo rating | 15248th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–22 | 25–24 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–15 | 11–16 |
| Underdog | 23–7 | 14–8 |
| Overs–unders | 23–24–3 | 20–27–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 1–8 SD in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.