Seattle Mariners at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Randy ArozarenaBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jack PerkinsPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9McNeil grounded into double play, to first, Soderstrom scored, Bolte out at second.9–2
- 9Arozarena homered to center (437 feet), Naylor scored.9–1
- 8Langeliers homered to center (412 feet).7–1
- 4Crawford homered to center (414 feet).7–0
- 3Canzone homered to right center (397 feet), Young scored.6–0
- 3Raley homered to right center (389 feet), Arozarena scored.4–0
- 3Arozarena doubled to right, Naylor scored.2–0
- 3Naylor grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Emerson scored, Rodríguez out at second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 50%
- ML SEA -108 / ATH -112
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- ATH: Elo 51.3%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- ATH -102
- SEA +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 5.2 – 5.3 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +4 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +9 Elo | ATH 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 50.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 15th of 3011–14 | Road vs home | 10–1225th of 30 |
| 20th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 11th of 301514 | Elo rating | 148820th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–33 | 29–24 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–30 | 5–16 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 24–8 |
| Overs–unders | 23–28–3 | 24–26–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 29–13 ATH in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 42.