Athletics at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Carlos CortesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jacob LopezPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Padres- Ty FranceBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael KingPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Soderstrom singled to right, Butler scored, Kurtz to third.5–2
- 7France homered to right (361 feet).4–2
- 6Machado hit sacrifice fly to left, Andujar scored.4–1
- 4Heim scored on King wild pitch, Bolte to second on wild pitch by King, McNeil to third on wild pitch by King.4–0
- 4Heim scored on King wild pitch, Bolte to second on wild pitch by King, McNeil to third on wild pitch by King.4–0
- 2Williams singled to left, Bolte scored.3–0
- 2Bolte doubled to left, Gelof scored.2–0
- 1Cortes homered to right center (380 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SD 61%
- ML ATH +144 / SD -175
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- SD: Elo 60.8%, market 60.8%
- Fair odds
- SD -155
- ATH +155 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.3 – 4.2 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +6 | ATH: Luis Medina: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SD: Michael King: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +76 Elo | SD 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 58.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 60.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.120th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.98th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.29th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 9th of 3016–14 | Road vs home | 16–1210th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 148929th of 30 |
| 20th of 301486 | Elo rating | 15285th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–24 | 27–24 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 5–16 | 12–16 |
| Underdog | 23–8 | 15–8 |
| Overs–unders | 24–25–3 | 21–28–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 1–10 SD in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.