Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Giants- Casey SchmittBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler MahlePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Adames homered to center (410 feet).7–5
- 8Devers doubled to right, Chapman scored.7–4
- 8Moreno singled to left, Vargas scored.7–3
- 7Haase homered to center (410 feet).6–3
- 7Marte homered to left (452 feet), Troy scored.6–2
- 6Vargas grounded into fielder's choice to second, Perdomo scored, Arenado out at second.4–2
- 3Schmitt singled to left, Adames scored.3–2
- 2Del Castillo homered to right (375 feet).3–1
- 2Moreno hit sacrifice fly to right, Waldschmidt scored.2–1
- 2Vargas grounded out to second, Arenado scored, Waldschmidt to third.1–1
- 1Schmitt homered to left center (411 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 51%
- ML ARI -105 / SF -115
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- SF: Elo 44.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SF -104
- ARI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.0 – 4.0 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +20 | −3 | ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 1.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Tyler Mahle: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +37 Elo | ARI 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.630th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.623rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.928th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 17th of 3011–14 | Road vs home | 12–1423rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15112nd of 30 |
| 12th of 301514 | Elo rating | 148322nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–22 | 25–29 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 12–14 | 8–9 |
| Underdog | 19–8 | 17–20 |
| Overs–unders | 24–24–5 | 25–25–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 25–18 SF in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 43.