Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- TJ RumfieldBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rumfield homered to left center (410 feet).4–5
- 6S. Thompson grounded out to first, Johnston scored.3–5
- 4Marte homered to right (424 feet), Tawa scored.2–5
- 4Tovar grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Rumfield scored, Johnston out at second, Freeman to third.2–3
- 4Johnston singled to right, Goodman scored, Freeman to second, Rumfield to third.1–3
- 3Arenado doubled to left, Perdomo scored and Marte scored.0–3
- 3Perdomo singled to left, Waldschmidt scored, Marte to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 63%
- ML COL +159 / ARI -194
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.2 pts
- ARI: Elo 68.3%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- ARI -171
- COL +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.2 – 5.3 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1407 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +8 | COL: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +134 Elo | ARI 68.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 63.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 63.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.0 | Margin | 0.014th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3010–17 | Road vs home | 15–95th of 30 |
| 1st of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 30th of 301407 | Elo rating | 150913th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–24 | 29–21 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 11–13 |
| Underdog | 28–22 | 18–8 |
| Overs–unders | 23–27–2 | 23–23–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 14–30 ARI in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 44.