Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Tyler FreemanBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Zach AgnosPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting1-5, 2 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Carroll singled to right, Moreno scored, Marte to second.1–2
- 8Freeman hit by pitch, Johnston scored, Castro to second, Rumfield to third.1–1
- 6Carroll grounded into fielder's choice to second, Waldschmidt scored, Marte out at second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 66%
- ML COL +178 / ARI -218
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- ARI: Elo 68.4%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- ARI -191
- COL +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.0 – 5.5 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1406 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +19 | COL: Zach Agnos (no track record yet) · ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.95 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +134 Elo | ARI 68.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 60.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.1 | Margin | 0.013th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 23rd of 309–16 | Road vs home | 14–85th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 15058th of 30 |
| 30th of 301406 | Elo rating | 151014th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–24 | 29–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 11–11 |
| Underdog | 26–22 | 18–8 |
| Overs–unders | 23–25–2 | 23–21–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 13–29 ARI in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 42.