Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting2-4
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Batting1-1, 2 RBI
- Michael SorokaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Stevens singled to right, S. Thompson scored.3–2
- 8Rumfield doubled to right, Goodman scored.2–2
- 5McCarthy hit sacrifice fly to right, Castro scored, Tovar to third.1–2
- 4Gurriel Jr. singled to left, Perdomo scored, Gurriel Jr. to second.0–2
- 2Gurriel Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Arenado scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 67%
- ML COL +192 / ARI -237
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- ARI: Elo 65.4%, market 67.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -205
- COL +205 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.7 – 5.3 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1405 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −5 | COL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Michael Soroka: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +111 Elo | ARI 65.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 64.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 64.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 67.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.1 | Margin | 0.013th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 24th of 309–17 | Road vs home | 15–84th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 150313th of 30 |
| 30th of 301405 | Elo rating | 151013th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–24 | 29–20 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 11–12 |
| Underdog | 27–22 | 18–8 |
| Overs–unders | 23–26–2 | 23–22–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 13–30 ARI in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 43.