Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Jake McCarthyBatting2-4
- Blas CastanoPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting3-4, 3 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Stevens hit sacrifice fly to right, McCarthy scored.1–9
- 6Carroll tripled to center, Marte scored.0–9
- 6Marte singled to right, Troy scored.0–8
- 3Waldschmidt tripled to left, Vargas scored.0–7
- 2Perdomo grounded out to second, Marte scored, Carroll to second.0–6
- 2Marte hit a ground rule double, A. Garcia scored and Troy scored.0–5
- 2A. Garcia singled to left, Waldschmidt scored.0–3
- 1Perdomo hit sacrifice fly to center, Carroll scored.0–2
- 1Carroll tripled to right, Marte scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 64%
- ML COL +168 / ARI -205
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- ARI: Elo 64.9%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -180
- COL +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.9 – 5.1 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1406 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −11 | COL: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +107 Elo | ARI 64.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 61.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 62.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.0 | Margin | 0.014th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 24th of 3010–18 | Road vs home | 16–94th of 30 |
| 1st of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 149819th of 30 |
| 30th of 301406 | Elo rating | 150912th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–24 | 29–22 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 11–14 |
| Underdog | 29–22 | 18–8 |
| Overs–unders | 23–28–2 | 23–24–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 14–31 ARI in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 29 of 45.