Arizona Diamondbacks at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Geraldo PerdomoBatting3-6, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Mariners- J.P. CrawfordBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- George KirbyPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Arozarena doubled to center, Crawford scored, Naylor to third.6–7
- 9Vargas grounded into fielder's choice to first, Perdomo scored, Tawa to second, Moreno to third.6–6
- 6Raley homered to right (403 feet).5–6
- 6Fernandez singled to right, Del Castillo scored, Vargas to third.5–5
- 6Vargas grounded into fielder's choice to first, Moreno scored, Waldschmidt out at second, Del Castillo to third.4–5
- 6Moreno doubled to center, Carroll scored and Perdomo scored.3–5
- 5Crawford homered to center (417 feet), Pereda scored.1–5
- 4Perdomo homered to right (353 feet).1–3
- 3Rodríguez homered to left (384 feet), Crawford scored.0–3
- 1Crawford homered to right (379 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 56%
- ML ARI +119 / SEA -144
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- SEA: Elo 52.9%, market 56.4%
- Fair odds
- SEA -129
- ARI +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.2 – 3.8 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +3 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +20 Elo | SEA 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 55.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 56.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.217th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.85th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.46th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 16th of 3013–14 | Road vs home | 14–1520th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149620th of 30 |
| 12th of 301516 | Elo rating | 15227th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–22 | 24–33 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–14 | 17–30 |
| Underdog | 21–8 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 25–25–5 | 25–29–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 5–4 SEA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.