Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting2-5
- Michael SorokaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Giants- Luis ArraezBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Trevor McDonaldPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Perdomo hit sacrifice fly to left, Troy scored.3–2
- 6Vargas hit sacrifice fly to right, Perdomo scored.2–2
- 6Del Castillo singled to left, Carroll scored, Perdomo to second.1–2
- 3Arraez singled to center, Gilbert scored and Adames scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 51%
- ML ARI -114 / SF -106
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- ARI: Elo 51.9%, market 50.9%
- Fair odds
- ARI -104
- SF +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.8 – 3.7 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −1 | ARI: Michael Soroka: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Trevor McDonald: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +13 Elo | ARI 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 50.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.730th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −1.028th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 16th of 3012–14 | Road vs home | 12–1524th of 30 |
| 24th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 15112nd of 30 |
| 12th of 301515 | Elo rating | 148123rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–22 | 25–30 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 12–14 | 8–10 |
| Underdog | 20–8 | 17–20 |
| Overs–unders | 25–24–5 | 26–25–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 8–1–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 26–18 SF in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 44.