Seattle Mariners at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Athletics- Zack GelofBatting2-4
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9McNeil grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Heim scored, Bolte out at second.9–1
- 8Rodríguez homered to left center (418 feet), Young scored and Emerson scored.9–0
- 6Emerson grounded into fielder's choice to first, Young scored on throwing error by shortstop Hernaiz, Pereda out at second.6–0
- 4Emerson tripled to right, Young scored and Pereda scored.5–0
- 1Refsnyder homered to left (368 feet), Crawford scored and Naylor scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 52%
- ML SEA -119 / ATH -102
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- SEA: Elo 54.8%, market 51.8%
- Fair odds
- SEA -108
- ATH +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.6 – 4.4 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −8 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +33 Elo | SEA 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 51.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.318th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 15th of 3013–14 | Road vs home | 10–1427th of 30 |
| 21st of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150116th of 30 |
| 9th of 301519 | Elo rating | 148321st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–33 | 29–26 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 17–30 | 5–18 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 24–8 |
| Overs–unders | 24–29–3 | 25–27–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 31–13 ATH in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 44.