Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryson StottBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew PainterPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Dodgers- Alex FreelandBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Stott homered to center (400 feet).1–9
- 8Freeman hit sacrifice fly to left, Freeland scored.0–9
- 7Muncy homered to right center (431 feet).0–8
- 6Freeman hit sacrifice fly to right, Pages scored.0–7
- 5Call singled to left, Betts scored and Tucker scored.0–6
- 4Freeland homered to right (344 feet).0–4
- 4Ward homered to right (400 feet).0–3
- 3Tucker singled to right, Freeman scored.0–2
- 2Freeland doubled to center, Muncy scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 68%
- ML PHI +199 / LAD -246
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- LAD: Elo 63.0%, market 68.0%
- Fair odds
- LAD -213
- PHI +213 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.7 – 5.3 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1575 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +16 | PHI: Andrew Painter: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.79 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +93 Elo | LAD 63.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 66.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 65.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 68.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 5.33rd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.21st of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +2.11st of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 7th of 3016–12 | Road vs home | 19–115th of 30 |
| 21st of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149029th of 30 |
| 7th of 301524 | Elo rating | 15751st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–35 | 31–27 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 13–27 | 30–26 |
| Underdog | 10–8 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 24–32–2 | 23–34–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 13–11 LAD in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 24.
- May 30PHI 4 @ LAD 3Picked LAD 53%Miss
- May 29PHI 2 @ LAD 4Picked LAD 51%Hit
- Oct 9PHI 1 @ LAD 2PlayoffsPicked LAD 55%Hit
- Oct 8PHI 8 @ LAD 2PlayoffsPicked LAD 62%Miss
- Oct 6LAD 4 @ PHI 3PlayoffsPicked PHI 50%Miss
- Oct 4LAD 5 @ PHI 3PlayoffsPicked PHI 52%Miss
- Sep 17PHI 0 @ LAD 5Picked LAD 57%Hit
- Sep 16PHI 9 @ LAD 6Picked LAD 54%Miss