Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Justin WrobleskiPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Berroa singled to center, Marsh scored.2–4
- 6Schwarber homered to center (411 feet).1–4
- 5Smith homered to right center (388 feet).0–4
- 3Ohtani homered to right (374 feet).0–3
- 2Muncy homered to right center (396 feet).0–2
- 1Freeman homered to left (365 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 51%
- ML PHI -105 / LAD -115
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 56.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -104
- PHI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.0 – 4.0 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1575 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | −7 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.93 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Justin Wrobleski: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +43 Elo | LAD 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.32nd of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.21st of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +2.11st of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 7th of 3015–11 | Road vs home | 18–104th of 30 |
| 26th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 148929th of 30 |
| 6th of 301524 | Elo rating | 15751st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–34 | 30–26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 13–27 | 29–25 |
| Underdog | 9–7 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 24–30–2 | 23–32–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 12–10 LAD in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 22.
- Oct 9PHI 1 @ LAD 2PlayoffsPicked LAD 55%Hit
- Oct 8PHI 8 @ LAD 2PlayoffsPicked LAD 62%Miss
- Oct 6LAD 4 @ PHI 3PlayoffsPicked PHI 50%Miss
- Oct 4LAD 5 @ PHI 3PlayoffsPicked PHI 52%Miss
- Sep 17PHI 0 @ LAD 5Picked LAD 57%Hit
- Sep 16PHI 9 @ LAD 6Picked LAD 54%Miss
- Sep 15PHI 6 @ LAD 5Picked LAD 52%Miss
- Apr 6LAD 7 @ PHI 8Picked LAD 53%Miss