Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Andy PagesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting1-4
- Brandon SproatPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 5Pages homered to left (380 feet), Tucker scored.5–1
- 5Tucker tripled to right, Betts scored and Freeman scored.3–1
- 4T. Hernández scored on Sproat wild pitch, Rojas to second on wild pitch by Sproat, Rushing to third on wild pitch by Sproat.1–1
- 4T. Hernández scored on Sproat wild pitch, Rojas to second on wild pitch by Sproat, Rushing to third on wild pitch by Sproat.1–1
- 2Frelick grounded into fielder's choice to second, Bauers scored, Mitchell out at second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 57%
- ML LAD -149 / MIL +123
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 51.9%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -133
- MIL +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.3 – 3.7 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1569 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −5 | LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Brandon Sproat: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +13 Elo | LAD 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 59.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.2 | Runs allowed | 3.64th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.0 | Margin | +1.43rd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 4th of 3017–10 | Road vs home | 16–106th of 30 |
| 26th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 1st of 301569 | Elo rating | 15582nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–26 | 29–20 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 25–25 | 15–16 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 14–4 |
| Overs–unders | 22–29–1 | 23–24–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 14–11 MIL in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 25.
- May 23LAD 11 @ MIL 3Picked LAD 51%Hit
- May 22LAD 1 @ MIL 5Picked MIL 50%Hit
- Oct 17MIL 1 @ LAD 5PlayoffsPicked LAD 63%Hit
- Oct 16MIL 1 @ LAD 3PlayoffsPicked LAD 60%Hit
- Oct 14LAD 5 @ MIL 1PlayoffsPicked LAD 52%Hit
- Oct 13LAD 2 @ MIL 1PlayoffsPicked LAD 59%Hit
- Jul 20MIL 6 @ LAD 5Picked LAD 62%Miss
- Jul 19MIL 8 @ LAD 7Picked LAD 53%Miss