Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Justin WrobleskiPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Logan HendersonPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Ohtani hit sacrifice fly to left, T. Hernández scored, Rushing to second.1–5
- 2Vaughn doubled to center, Contreras scored.0–5
- 1Frelick hit sacrifice fly to left, Vaughn scored.0–4
- 1Contreras homered to left (410 feet), Chourio scored and Turang scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 50%
- ML LAD -109 / MIL -110
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- MIL: Elo 53.4%, market 50.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -100
- LAD +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.0 – 4.0 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1568 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +9 | LAD: Justin Wrobleski: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIL: Logan Henderson: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +23 Elo | MIL 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 50.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.2 | Runs allowed | 3.43rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+2.0 | Margin | +1.63rd of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 4th of 3016–9 | Road vs home | 15–96th of 30 |
| 27th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 149818th of 30 |
| 1st of 301568 | Elo rating | 15592nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–25 | 28–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 25–25 | 14–15 |
| Underdog | — | 14–4 |
| Overs–unders | 21–28–1 | 22–23–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 13–10 MIL in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 23.
- Oct 17MIL 1 @ LAD 5PlayoffsPicked LAD 63%Hit
- Oct 16MIL 1 @ LAD 3PlayoffsPicked LAD 60%Hit
- Oct 14LAD 5 @ MIL 1PlayoffsPicked LAD 52%Hit
- Oct 13LAD 2 @ MIL 1PlayoffsPicked LAD 59%Hit
- Jul 20MIL 6 @ LAD 5Picked LAD 62%Miss
- Jul 19MIL 8 @ LAD 7Picked LAD 53%Miss
- Jul 18MIL 2 @ LAD 0Picked LAD 63%Miss
- Jul 9LAD 2 @ MIL 3Picked LAD 58%Miss