Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 6 RBI
- Roki SasakiPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting2-5
- Robert GasserPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ohtani singled to right, Rojas scored, Espinal to third.11–3
- 9Espinal doubled to center, T. Hernández scored, Rojas to third.10–3
- 9T. Hernández singled to right, Freeman scored and Smith scored.9–3
- 8Rojas hit sacrifice bunt, Tucker scored, T. Hernández to second.7–3
- 8T. Hernández singled to right, Pages scored, Tucker to third.6–3
- 8Smith singled to center, Freeman scored, Pages to second.5–3
- 4T. Hernández homered to left (357 feet), Pages scored and Tucker scored.4–3
- 4Pages doubled to left, Freeman scored.1–3
- 1Frelick singled to center, Yelich scored, Sánchez thrown out at third.0–3
- 1Turang scored on error, Vaughn safe at first on throwing error by pitcher Sasaki.0–2
- 1Turang doubled to left, Chourio scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 51%
- ML LAD -115 / MIL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- LAD: Elo 46.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -104
- MIL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.3 – 4.2 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1565 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | −4 | LAD: Roki Sasaki: team allows 0.79 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIL: Robert Gasser: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +26 Elo | MIL 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.2 | Runs allowed | 3.43rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.8 | Margin | +1.63rd of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 4th of 3016–10 | Road vs home | 16–94th of 30 |
| 27th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 30 |
| 1st of 301565 | Elo rating | 15622nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–26 | 29–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 25–25 | 15–15 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 14–4 |
| Overs–unders | 21–29–1 | 22–24–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 13–11 MIL in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 24.
- May 22LAD 1 @ MIL 5Picked MIL 50%Hit
- Oct 17MIL 1 @ LAD 5PlayoffsPicked LAD 63%Hit
- Oct 16MIL 1 @ LAD 3PlayoffsPicked LAD 60%Hit
- Oct 14LAD 5 @ MIL 1PlayoffsPicked LAD 52%Hit
- Oct 13LAD 2 @ MIL 1PlayoffsPicked LAD 59%Hit
- Jul 20MIL 6 @ LAD 5Picked LAD 62%Miss
- Jul 19MIL 8 @ LAD 7Picked LAD 53%Miss
- Jul 18MIL 2 @ LAD 0Picked LAD 63%Miss