Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Laureano homered to left center (409 feet).4–3
- 4Machado homered to left (362 feet), Sheets scored.4–2
- 3Bohm singled to center, Harper scored, Marsh to third.4–0
- 3Turner homered to left (434 feet).3–0
- 2Realmuto homered to left (385 feet).2–0
- 1Harper homered to right (361 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 50%
- ML PHI -110 / SD -110
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.0 pts
- SD: Elo 56.0%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- SD -100
- PHI -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.8 – 3.8 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +8 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.68 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +42 Elo | SD 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.024th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.97th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.112th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 10th of 3013–11 | Road vs home | 16–1415th of 30 |
| 26th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 148928th of 30 |
| 8th of 301521 | Elo rating | 15235th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–34 | 27–26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 12–27 | 12–18 |
| Underdog | 8–7 | 15–8 |
| Overs–unders | 24–28–2 | 21–30–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 14–6 SD in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 20.