Cleveland Guardians at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Travis BazzanaBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Parker MessickPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting2-4
- Andrew PainterPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bazzana homered to right (412 feet).3–1
- 7Harper hit sacrifice fly to center, Marsh scored, Turner to third.2–1
- 6Hoskins doubled to left, DeLauter scored, Hoskins thrown out at third.2–0
- 5Kwan singled to left, Schneemann scored, Fry to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 51%
- ML CLE -115 / PHI -105
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- CLE: Elo 50.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -104
- PHI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.5 – 3.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −10 | CLE: Parker Messick: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · PHI: Andrew Painter: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +3 Elo | CLE 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.121st of 30 |
| 7th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 8th of 3016–13 | Road vs home | 14–1521st of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149327th of 30 |
| 8th of 301523 | Elo rating | 15209th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–25 | 19–33 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–14 | 12–26 |
| Underdog | 16–11 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders | 26–28 | 24–26–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 6–5 PHI in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.