Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Kyle KarrosBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching4.0 IP, 8 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting3-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Eric LauerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9S. Thompson singled to left, Johnston scored.6–15
- 9Karros homered to left (379 feet), Fulford scored and McCarthy scored.5–15
- 9Sullivan homered to center (390 feet).2–15
- 6Smith homered to center (399 feet), Tucker scored.1–15
- 6Betts homered to left center (377 feet), Pages scored and Freeman scored.1–13
- 5Kim hit sacrifice fly to center, Smith scored.1–10
- 5Rojas doubled to left, T. Hernández scored, Smith to third.1–9
- 4Freeman hit sacrifice fly to center, Pages scored.1–8
- 4Pages doubled to center, E. Hernández scored and Ohtani scored.1–7
- 4Rojas scored on Freeland wild pitch, Ohtani to second on wild pitch by Freeland, E. Hernández to third on wild pitch by Freeland.1–5
- 4Rojas scored on Freeland wild pitch, Ohtani to second on wild pitch by Freeland, E. Hernández to third on wild pitch by Freeland.1–5
- 3Pages homered to left center (418 feet).1–4
- 3E. Hernández homered to left (371 feet).1–3
- 2Goodman homered to center (406 feet).1–2
- 1Betts homered to center (404 feet), Freeman scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 68%
- ML COL +197 / LAD -244
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 75.9%, market 67.8%
- Fair odds
- LAD -211
- COL +211 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.7 – 5.3 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1403 | 1572 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +1 | COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Eric Lauer: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +200 Elo | LAD 75.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 68.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 69.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 67.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.23rd of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 3.21st of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +2.01st of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 27th of 3010–20 | Road vs home | 16–107th of 30 |
| 1st of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 149227th of 30 |
| 30th of 301403 | Elo rating | 15721st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–26 | 28–26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 27–25 |
| Underdog | 29–24 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 24–29–2 | 22–31–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 10–34 LAD in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 34 of 44.