Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tanner GordonPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Dodgers- Andy PagesBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Emmet SheehanPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Pages singled to center, Freeman scored.3–5
- 7Freeman doubled to right, Ohtani scored.3–4
- 7Betts hit sacrifice fly to left, Kim scored, Ohtani to second.3–3
- 7Dodgers challenged (play at 1st), call on the field was overturned: Shohei Ohtani grounds into a force out, second baseman Willi Castro to shortstop Ezequiel Tovar. Will Smith scores. Hyeseong Kim to3–2
- 7Tovar homered to center (431 feet).3–1
- 4Tovar hit sacrifice fly to left, Johnston scored.2–1
- 4Castro singled to right, Freeman scored, Johnston to third.1–1
- 3E. Hernández doubled to left, Kim scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 73%
- ML COL +257 / LAD -326
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 76.5%, market 73.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -273
- COL +273 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.4 – 5.6 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1404 | 1571 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | +3 | COL: Tanner Gordon: team allows 0.83 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAD: Emmet Sheehan: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +205 Elo | LAD 76.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 73.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 73.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 73.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.23rd of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 3.21st of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +2.01st of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 27th of 3010–19 | Road vs home | 15–107th of 30 |
| 1st of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 149427th of 30 |
| 30th of 301404 | Elo rating | 15711st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–25 | 27–26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 26–25 |
| Underdog | 29–23 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 24–28–2 | 22–30–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 10–33 LAD in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 33 of 43.