Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Tyler FreemanBatting1-4
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Dodgers- Andy PagesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shohei OhtaniPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Pages homered to left (352 feet).1–4
- 4Call singled to left, Kim scored, Smith thrown out at home.1–3
- 4Castro grounded out to second, Rumfield scored, Johnston to second.1–2
- 1Freeman homered to left center (378 feet).0–2
- 1Ohtani homered to center (424 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 76.7% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 78%
- ML COL +343 / LAD -454
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- LAD: Elo 75.2%, market 78.4%
- Fair odds
- LAD -363
- COL +363 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.6 – 5.4 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1402 | 1574 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +15 | COL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Shohei Ohtani: team allows 0.77 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +193 Elo | LAD 75.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 77.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 77.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 78.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.32nd of 30 |
| 29th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 3.21st of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +2.11st of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 27th of 3010–21 | Road vs home | 17–105th of 30 |
| 1st of 301514 | Opponent Elo | 149028th of 30 |
| 30th of 301402 | Elo rating | 15741st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–27 | 29–26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 28–25 |
| Underdog | 29–25 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 25–29–2 | 23–31–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 10–35 LAD in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 35 of 45.