Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting2-4
- Walker BuehlerPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Turner homered to left (382 feet).3–0
- 6Turner grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Sosa scored, Schwarber out at second.2–0
- 6Schwarber singled to right, Crawford scored, Sosa to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 57%
- ML PHI -148 / SD +123
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 50.2%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -133
- SD +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.8 – 3.2 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | −4 | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.78 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +1 Elo | PHI 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 59.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.024th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.98th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.4 | Margin | 0.012th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 8th of 3014–11 | Road vs home | 16–1517th of 30 |
| 26th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149028th of 30 |
| 6th of 301522 | Elo rating | 15228th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–34 | 27–27 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–27 | 12–19 |
| Underdog | 9–7 | 15–8 |
| Overs–unders | 24–29–2 | 21–31–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 15–6 SD in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 21.