Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Edmundo SosaBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Roki SasakiPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Sosa homered to left center (379 feet), Harper scored.4–3
- 8Harper singled to right, Crawford scored.2–3
- 7Phillies challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Mookie Betts singles on a line drive to right fielder Adolis García. Andy Pages scores.1–3
- 4Espinal hit sacrifice fly to center, Call scored.1–2
- 2Call singled to center, Smith scored, Rojas to second.1–1
- 2Bohm homered to center (406 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 53%
- ML PHI +105 / LAD -126
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.7 pts
- LAD: Elo 58.0%, market 53.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -114
- PHI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.1 – 4.4 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1576 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −14 | PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Roki Sasaki: team allows 0.70 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +56 Elo | LAD 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 53.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 5.32nd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.21st of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +2.11st of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 9th of 3015–12 | Road vs home | 19–102nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 148929th of 30 |
| 7th of 301522 | Elo rating | 15761st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–35 | 31–26 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 13–27 | 30–25 |
| Underdog | 9–8 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 24–31–2 | 23–33–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 12–11 LAD in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 23.
- May 29PHI 2 @ LAD 4Picked LAD 51%Hit
- Oct 9PHI 1 @ LAD 2PlayoffsPicked LAD 55%Hit
- Oct 8PHI 8 @ LAD 2PlayoffsPicked LAD 62%Miss
- Oct 6LAD 4 @ PHI 3PlayoffsPicked PHI 50%Miss
- Oct 4LAD 5 @ PHI 3PlayoffsPicked PHI 52%Miss
- Sep 17PHI 0 @ LAD 5Picked LAD 57%Hit
- Sep 16PHI 9 @ LAD 6Picked LAD 54%Miss
- Sep 15PHI 6 @ LAD 5Picked LAD 52%Miss