Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Kyle TuckerBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shohei OhtaniPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Diamondbacks- Geraldo PerdomoBatting1-4
- Zac GallenPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7Freeland singled to center, Muncy scored and Smith scored, Call to third.7–0
- 3Muncy singled to center, Freeman scored, Tucker to second.5–0
- 3Freeman singled to left, Ohtani scored and Pages scored.4–0
- 2Tucker homered to right center (424 feet), Betts scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 66%
- ML LAD -218 / ARI +178
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 58.5%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -191
- ARI +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.0 – 3.5 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1576 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +1 | LAD: Shohei Ohtani: team allows 0.82 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +60 Elo | LAD 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 62.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 61.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.2 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.1 | Margin | +0.29th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3019–11 | Road vs home | 18–105th of 30 |
| 29th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 150013th of 30 |
| 1st of 301576 | Elo rating | 151412th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–28 | 36–24 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 31–27 | 12–15 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 24–9 |
| Overs–unders | 25–35–1 | 27–28–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 26–21 ARI in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 29 of 47.