Arizona Diamondbacks at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting0-3, 1 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Mariners- Dominic CanzoneBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Robles reached on infield single to shortstop, Arozarena scored, Raley to third.2–3
- 8Marte hit sacrifice fly to left, Moreno scored.2–2
- 6Canzone homered to right (364 feet).1–2
- 6Carroll scored on Castillo wild pitch, Perdomo to second on wild pitch by Castillo.1–1
- 6Carroll scored on Castillo wild pitch, Perdomo to second on wild pitch by Castillo.1–1
- 2Young homered to right (389 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 58%
- ML ARI +128 / SEA -155
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- SEA: Elo 53.7%, market 58.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -139
- ARI +139 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.4 – 4.1 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −1 | ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +25 Elo | SEA 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 58.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.85th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.56th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 17th of 3013–16 | Road vs home | 16–1517th of 30 |
| 20th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149622nd of 30 |
| 12th of 301513 | Elo rating | 15256th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–23 | 25–34 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–14 | 18–31 |
| Underdog | 22–9 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 26–26–5 | 26–30–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 5–6 SEA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.