Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting3-4
- Emmet SheehanPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Marte homered to left (409 feet), Troy scored.1–4
- 7Arenado homered to left center (389 feet).1–2
- 6Troy homered to left (392 feet).1–1
- 3Freeman grounded out to third, Ohtani scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 59%
- ML LAD -163 / ARI +135
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- LAD: Elo 54.8%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -146
- ARI +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.7 – 3.8 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1577 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +16 | LAD: Emmet Sheehan: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.79 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +33 Elo | LAD 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 58.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.1 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.2 | Margin | +0.19th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3018–10 | Road vs home | 17–92nd of 30 |
| 29th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 149719th of 30 |
| 1st of 301577 | Elo rating | 151213th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–27 | 35–23 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 31–26 | 12–14 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 23–9 |
| Overs–unders | 24–34–1 | 26–27–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 25–20 ARI in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 45.