Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Nick GonzalesBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Braxton AshcraftPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Braves- Dominic SmithBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5Smith homered to left (351 feet), Olson scored.3–6
- 5Albies hit sacrifice fly to right, Acuña Jr. scored, Olson to third.3–4
- 5Lowe hit sacrifice fly to center, Triolo scored.3–3
- 4Callihan doubled to right, Gonzales scored, Cruz thrown out at home.2–3
- 4Gonzales doubled to left, Reynolds scored.1–3
- 3Dubón stole home, Albies stole second, Albies safe at third on throwing error by catcher Rodríguez.0–3
- 3Dubón stole home, Albies stole second, Albies safe at third on throwing error by catcher Rodríguez.0–3
- 1Riley doubled to left, Dubón scored, Smith to third.0–2
- 1Albies hit sacrifice fly to center, Acuña Jr. scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 52%
- ML PIT -103 / ATL -117
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.3 pts
- ATL: Elo 55.8%, market 51.5%
- Fair odds
- ATL -106
- PIT +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.9 – 4.1 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −14 | PIT: Braxton Ashcraft: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.70 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +41 Elo | ATL 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 51.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.22nd of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.52nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +1.82nd of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 13th of 3016–15 | Road vs home | 20–113rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149525th of 30 |
| 15th of 301499 | Elo rating | 15454th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–33 | 42–22 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–20 | 28–18 |
| Underdog | 17–13 | 14–4 |
| Overs–unders | 36–26–2 | 31–29–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 10–10 ATL in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 20.