Toronto Blue Jays at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Myles StrawBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Chad DallasPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Braves- Mauricio DubonBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris SalePitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Heineman doubled to left, Lukes scored and Straw scored.7–2
- 9Straw singled to right, Guerrero Jr. scored, Lukes to third.5–2
- 9Lukes singled to right, Clement scored, Guerrero Jr. to second.4–2
- 8Dubón homered to left (380 feet).3–2
- 3Olson hit sacrifice fly to right, Acuña Jr. scored.3–1
- 3Straw singled to center, McAdoo scored and Okamoto scored, Lukes to second.3–0
- 3McAdoo singled to center, Guerrero Jr. scored, Okamoto to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 69%
- ML TOR +210 / ATL -261
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.9 pts
- ATL: Elo 60.3%, market 69.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -224
- TOR +224 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.9 – 4.6 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +21 | TOR: Mason Fluharty: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 1.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +72 Elo | ATL 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 63.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 63.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 69.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.32nd of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.42nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +1.82nd of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3012–20 | Road vs home | 19–102nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149525th of 30 |
| 9th of 301514 | Elo rating | 15474th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–30 | 41–21 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–20 | 27–17 |
| Underdog | 19–10 | 14–4 |
| Overs–unders | 29–30–3 | 29–29–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 6–5 ATL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.