Toronto Blue Jays at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Nathan LukesBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Grant HolmesPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Valenzuela homered to right (399 feet).3–7
- 7Albies homered to left (393 feet), Smith scored and Olson scored.2–7
- 3Dubón homered to center (405 feet), Olson scored and Albies scored.2–4
- 3Lukes homered to right (374 feet).2–1
- 2Kim singled to left, White scored on error, Kim safe at second on throwing error by left fielder Lukes.1–1
- 1Sánchez grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Lukes scored, Guerrero Jr. out at second, Pinango to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 57%
- ML TOR +123 / ATL -149
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- ATL: Elo 56.7%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -133
- TOR +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.7 – 4.3 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +2 | TOR: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Grant Holmes: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +47 Elo | ATL 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 57.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.23rd of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.43rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +1.82nd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 21st of 3012–19 | Road vs home | 18–105th of 30 |
| 24th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149525th of 30 |
| 9th of 301516 | Elo rating | 15454th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–29 | 40–21 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–20 | 26–17 |
| Underdog | 19–9 | 14–4 |
| Overs–unders | 28–30–3 | 28–29–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 6–4 ATL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.