Toronto Blue Jays at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Kazuma OkamotoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Olson homered to right (355 feet).3–4
- 6Varsho hit sacrifice fly to left, Lukes scored.3–3
- 3Albies singled to left, Olson scored.2–3
- 2Okamoto homered to right (364 feet), Pinango scored.2–2
- 1Albies hit sacrifice fly to center, Harris II scored.0–2
- 1Harris II doubled to center, Acuña Jr. scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 51%
- ML TOR -105 / ATL -115
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- ATL: Elo 54.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -104
- TOR +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.7 – 3.8 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −6 | TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +33 Elo | ATL 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.32nd of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.53rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +1.82nd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 21st of 3012–18 | Road vs home | 17–106th of 30 |
| 24th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149425th of 30 |
| 8th of 301517 | Elo rating | 15444th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–29 | 40–20 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–20 | 26–16 |
| Underdog | 18–9 | 14–4 |
| Overs–unders | 28–29–3 | 28–28–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 6–3 ATL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.